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PHR [+32% - BUY] - Industrial Park Development is A Game Changer - Equity Update - 22 Feb 2019

22-02-2019 16:20:32

2018 Business Performance Review. Despite a fall in rubber price, PHR continued to deliver a strong growth thank to rising wood price, increasing rubber-tree liquidation area and land transfer value. In FY2018, revenue and net profit achieved VND 1,721bn and VND 519bn, exceeding 9% and 45% target plan, respectively. The average natural rubber price remained low, at VND 32.9 million per ton in 2018, decreasing by 18% YoY. 2019 earnings outlook. Amid a low rubber price, PHR sets 2019 plan with around VND 1,600bn in revenue and VND 1,300bn in profit before tax. Land transfer and rubber wood liquidation play key growth driver. The company plans to liquidate ~ 1,000ha rubber wood and transfer ~ 650ha land for industrial parks development. As rubber price remains low, rubber segment is expected to contribute a marginal portion for the company’s total income. In 2019, rubber exploitation and rubber consumption volume will amount 11,500 tons and 26,500 tons, respectively. We expect PHR’s revenue and net profit will achieve VND 1,562bn (+0% YoY) and VND 1,287bn (+107% YoY) in 2019.

PNJ [+28.1% - BUY] - Diamond & Gemstone Category as Key Growth Driver - Equity Update - 18 Feb 2019

18-02-2019 00:00:00

2018 snapshots: Diamond & Gemstone jewelry is key to SSSG & margin upswingPNJ ends 2018 with VND 14,680bn in sales (+33% YoY) and VND 960bn in NPAT (+32.5% YoY). The continuously breakneck growth is attributable to: 1) 20% SSSG of gold jewelry retail, 2) overall margin improved by 160 bps to 18.9%, and 3) 61 new stores, grossing 324 stores nationwide. Our research indicates the primary factors to SSSG & margin upswing are accelerated demand for jewelry products and the increasing proportion of diamond & gemstone jewelry in gold retail.2019F outlook: Key themes are Diamond & Gemstone jewelry, New collections & Data-driven customer approachWe estimate PNJ to achieve VND 18,145bn in sales (+23.6% YoY) and VND 1,249bn in NPAT (+30.1% YoY) in 2019F. Followings are our key assumptions:Diamond & Gemstone jewelry to continue rising its proportion in gold retail as company guidance, which consequentially allows PNJ to increase both ticket size and margin in long run. Silver retail to recover as PNJ plans to redesign its silver collections towards more bold and larger pieces. We estimate 5% SSSG and 65% GPM for this unit in 2019. Wholesales & gold bar to see 20% YoY growth in sales (same as 2018) while export sales to see 10% YoY growth (2018: +25.6% YoY). 50 new stores, including 44 PNJ Gold, 3 CAO Fine and 3 watches stores. SG&A expenses to sales ratio to remain stable at 10.5% (2018: 10.4%).

OIL [NOT-RATED] - Delayed Divestment Schedule Hinders Upside Potential - Flash Notes - 04 Sept 2018

04-09-2018 13:07:20

PetroVietnam Oil Corporation (PVOil), the second largest gas and oil distributor, recently hold the 1H2018 Analyst Meeting and 2018 AGM. There are some following highlights: 6M2018 earnings result – Stronger performance thanks to higher oil prices and increasing consumption ·         Revenue and Net profit (reviewed and audited) reached VND 32,324bn (+14.35% YoY) and VND 331bn (+62% YoY). Sales volume was 1.64 mn tons, increasing by 8% YoY. The company delivered the better performance thanks to the recovery of oil prices and an increase in retail consumption. Of which a VND330bn profit, the company recorded the VND120bn from 2017 tax refund and VND50bn from subsidiaries’ dividend, leaving the core earnings of VND 160bn. ·         PVOIL completed an initial public offering (IPO) in Jan, 2018 and listed on UpCOM with OIL ticker in March, 2018. The company also continued seeking strategic investors to divest the state-owned stake. OIL revealed that there were four strategic investors having an interest in the company. The divestment process, however, was stuck due to government’s bureaucracy, and as the result, the process will extend to 2019. The company plans to divest state-owned stake through direct transaction or put-through transaction. Since August, 2018, the company transformed its business model to Join stock company and will remain its foreign investor room at 6.69%. ·         In April, 2018 PVOil launched PV Oil Easy, which is a cashless payment app for drivers and petrol stations. This application is used for smartphones and tablets that help users to buy and manage their petrol purchase via a QR code. Viettel Post was one of the first customers to sign up and use the app. Petrolimex, OIL’s competitor, launched non-cash payment (ATM card) service since 2017.

TVS Weekly NewsBrief - The Vietnam Streetwise - Wk33.2018

21-08-2018 09:22:44

What’s on deck in economics?7M2018 credit growth saw 7.36%YTD. According to data released by the General Statistics Office (GSO), 7M2018 credit posted 7.36% year-to-date, down from 9.6% figure seen in the year-earlier period. In addition, the central bank (SBV) re-affirmed that they will do not adjust upward of credit growth target for any bankers through the Instruction 04/CT-NHNN issued by 02 August 2018. It is in line with our expectation when we believe the SBV put the 2018 credit growth target at manageable level when the full-year real GDP growth target of 6.7% is well within reach after marking the strongest first-half in a decade (the economy grew by 7.08% YoY in 1H2018). In the case, the SBV will remain biased towards a tight monetary policy stance to avoid the inflation. (Chart of theWeek).Market Watch Vietnam stock market gained for fifth week in a row as consumer cyclical sector rallied. The Vietnam stock market was slightly higher for 5th straight week with VNindex adding 0.41 points, a gain of 0.04%, to 968.9 when the market momentum drove the investor’s sentiment. In our view, trading may continue to be driven by momentum when the 1H2018 earnings season largely was over. The consumer cyclical sector rose 1.42%, the best performer out of the 9 sectors. Mobile World Investment Corp (MWG +2.3% owa), FPT Corp (FPT +0.77% owa) and Phu Nhuan Jewelry JSC (PVD +2.96% owa) were among the biggest boost to consumer cyclical sectors. The foreign investors continued to be net selling position with USD 11.02mn, focusing on VNM.

TVS Weekly NewsBrief - The Vietnam Streetwise - Wk31.2018

07-08-2018 17:56:02

What’s on deck in economics? Industrial Production Growth at Slower Pace. According to data released by the General Statistics Office (GSO), headline industrial production reached 10.9% year on year in 7M2018, outpacing the 7.1% figure seen in the year-earlier period. The manufacturing sector, posting the 13.1% growth YoY, contributed the most the growth of industrial production. We, however, noted that Vietnam's manufacturing sector grew by a more modest 10.1% in the 2Q2018, lower than the 15.7% recorded in 1Q2018. The decrease was partly attributed to Samsung Electronics (South Korea), which concentrated the production of its flagship products in the first quarter of this year, instead of in the second quarter, as it did in the previous year. In addition, the headline Nikkei Vietnam Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ IndexTM (PMI® ) – a composite single-figure indicator of manufacturing performance – posted 54.9 in July, down marginally from 55.7 in June. We believe the pace of expansion slightly eased in the second quarter of 2018. (Chart of the Week).   Market Watch Vietnam stock market gained for 3rd week in a row as energy rallied. The Vnindex added 24.1 points, or 2.57%, to 959.6 when the investors cheered “Sao Vang – Dai Nguyet” gas field development announced by Viet Nam National Oil and Gas Group (PetroVietnam). The energy sector rose 9.54%, the best performer out of the 9 sectors. Petrovietnam Gas JSC (GAS +9.88% owa), Vietnam National Petroleum Group (PLX +10.17%) and Petrovietnam Drilling & Well Services (PVD +15.58% owa) were among the biggest boost to energy sectors. The foreign investors continued to be net selling position with USD 39.91mn, focusing on VIC, VNM and HPG.

TVS Weekly NewsBrief - The Vietnam Streetwise - Wk30.2018

31-07-2018 17:25:58

What’s on deck in economics? Inflation accelerates at slower pace. According to data released by the General Statistics Office (GSO), July 2018 CPI accelerated to 4.46% year-on-year (YoY), showing slower pace than the June 2018 of 4.67% YoY. The slower pace is inline with our expectation stated in our last report (TheVietnamStreetWise_Wk_22_2018) when the base effect dropped out and the core inflation (excluding the food and energy prices) was at manageable level. The annual food and transportation reached 5.00% (up from negative 2.52% last year) and 10.84% (up from 1.43% last year) respectively; contributing the most to inflation. We maintained our view that the inflationary pressures leave no room for SBV use the loose monetary policy in coming months. (Chart of the Week).   Market Watch Vietnam stock market ended week mostly flat when the earning season fading away. The Vnindex gained 2.13 points, or 0.23%, to 935.52 when almost investors discounted good 1H2018 earnings. All five of nine primary Vnindex sectors finished in positive territory. The industrials sector was a particular outperformer, gaining 1.73% while energy and consumer non-cyclicals sectors were up 1.50% and 1.19% respectively. Vietjet Air (VJC +4.40% owa) and REE Corp (REE +3.41% owa) were among the biggest boost to industrial sectors when VJC announced the 2Q2018 interim net income of USD 41mn (+44% QoQ) and REE Corp posted 1H2018 net income of USD 42mn (+42% HoH) thanks to good investment in associates like Pha Lai Thermal Power (PPC). The foreign investors continued to be net selling position with USD 22.84mn, focusing on VIC and HPG.