Market reports

TVS Weekly NewsBrief - The Vietnam Streetwise - Wk33.2018

21-08-2018 09:22:44

What’s on deck in economics?7M2018 credit growth saw 7.36%YTD. According to data released by the General Statistics Office (GSO), 7M2018 credit posted 7.36% year-to-date, down from 9.6% figure seen in the year-earlier period. In addition, the central bank (SBV) re-affirmed that they will do not adjust upward of credit growth target for any bankers through the Instruction 04/CT-NHNN issued by 02 August 2018. It is in line with our expectation when we believe the SBV put the 2018 credit growth target at manageable level when the full-year real GDP growth target of 6.7% is well within reach after marking the strongest first-half in a decade (the economy grew by 7.08% YoY in 1H2018). In the case, the SBV will remain biased towards a tight monetary policy stance to avoid the inflation. (Chart of theWeek).Market Watch Vietnam stock market gained for fifth week in a row as consumer cyclical sector rallied. The Vietnam stock market was slightly higher for 5th straight week with VNindex adding 0.41 points, a gain of 0.04%, to 968.9 when the market momentum drove the investor’s sentiment. In our view, trading may continue to be driven by momentum when the 1H2018 earnings season largely was over. The consumer cyclical sector rose 1.42%, the best performer out of the 9 sectors. Mobile World Investment Corp (MWG +2.3% owa), FPT Corp (FPT +0.77% owa) and Phu Nhuan Jewelry JSC (PVD +2.96% owa) were among the biggest boost to consumer cyclical sectors. The foreign investors continued to be net selling position with USD 11.02mn, focusing on VNM.

TVS Weekly NewsBrief - The Vietnam Streetwise - Wk31.2018

07-08-2018 17:56:02

What’s on deck in economics? Industrial Production Growth at Slower Pace. According to data released by the General Statistics Office (GSO), headline industrial production reached 10.9% year on year in 7M2018, outpacing the 7.1% figure seen in the year-earlier period. The manufacturing sector, posting the 13.1% growth YoY, contributed the most the growth of industrial production. We, however, noted that Vietnam's manufacturing sector grew by a more modest 10.1% in the 2Q2018, lower than the 15.7% recorded in 1Q2018. The decrease was partly attributed to Samsung Electronics (South Korea), which concentrated the production of its flagship products in the first quarter of this year, instead of in the second quarter, as it did in the previous year. In addition, the headline Nikkei Vietnam Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ IndexTM (PMI® ) – a composite single-figure indicator of manufacturing performance – posted 54.9 in July, down marginally from 55.7 in June. We believe the pace of expansion slightly eased in the second quarter of 2018. (Chart of the Week).   Market Watch Vietnam stock market gained for 3rd week in a row as energy rallied. The Vnindex added 24.1 points, or 2.57%, to 959.6 when the investors cheered “Sao Vang – Dai Nguyet” gas field development announced by Viet Nam National Oil and Gas Group (PetroVietnam). The energy sector rose 9.54%, the best performer out of the 9 sectors. Petrovietnam Gas JSC (GAS +9.88% owa), Vietnam National Petroleum Group (PLX +10.17%) and Petrovietnam Drilling & Well Services (PVD +15.58% owa) were among the biggest boost to energy sectors. The foreign investors continued to be net selling position with USD 39.91mn, focusing on VIC, VNM and HPG.

TVS Weekly NewsBrief - The Vietnam Streetwise - Wk30.2018

31-07-2018 17:25:58

What’s on deck in economics? Inflation accelerates at slower pace. According to data released by the General Statistics Office (GSO), July 2018 CPI accelerated to 4.46% year-on-year (YoY), showing slower pace than the June 2018 of 4.67% YoY. The slower pace is inline with our expectation stated in our last report (TheVietnamStreetWise_Wk_22_2018) when the base effect dropped out and the core inflation (excluding the food and energy prices) was at manageable level. The annual food and transportation reached 5.00% (up from negative 2.52% last year) and 10.84% (up from 1.43% last year) respectively; contributing the most to inflation. We maintained our view that the inflationary pressures leave no room for SBV use the loose monetary policy in coming months. (Chart of the Week).   Market Watch Vietnam stock market ended week mostly flat when the earning season fading away. The Vnindex gained 2.13 points, or 0.23%, to 935.52 when almost investors discounted good 1H2018 earnings. All five of nine primary Vnindex sectors finished in positive territory. The industrials sector was a particular outperformer, gaining 1.73% while energy and consumer non-cyclicals sectors were up 1.50% and 1.19% respectively. Vietjet Air (VJC +4.40% owa) and REE Corp (REE +3.41% owa) were among the biggest boost to industrial sectors when VJC announced the 2Q2018 interim net income of USD 41mn (+44% QoQ) and REE Corp posted 1H2018 net income of USD 42mn (+42% HoH) thanks to good investment in associates like Pha Lai Thermal Power (PPC). The foreign investors continued to be net selling position with USD 22.84mn, focusing on VIC and HPG.

TVS Weekly NewsBrief - The Vietnam Streetwise - Wk28.2018

16-07-2018 18:01:28

What’s on deck in economics?1H2018 modest credit growth of 6.35%. According to data released by the General Statistics Office(GSO), 1H2018 total credit in the economy grew at a pace of 6.35% YTD, down from 7.54% YTD lastyear. It is in line with our expectation when we believe the State Bank of Vietnam (the central bank,SBV) put the 2018 credit growth target at manageable level when the full-year real GDP growthtarget of 6.7% is well within reach after marking the strongest first-half in a decade (the economygrew by 7.08% YoY in 1H2018). In the case, the SBV will remain biased towards a tight monetarypolicy stance to avoid the inflation. (Chart of the Week)Market WatchVietnam stock market extended its losing streak marking fifth weekly decline on heightened tradeconcerns. The Vnindex closed decisively lower, falling around 7.79 points, or 0.9%, to 909.8 whensome investors fear could morph into a full-on trade war. All seven of nine primary Vnindex sectorsfinished in negative territory, led by loss in basic material and consumer cyclicals, a drop in 5.79%and 3.34% respectively. The basic material sector dragged down by a decline in HPG (-3.29 %), HSG(-3.89%) and POM (-2.30%) when the investors feared about the trade war tension hitting Vietnamsteel industry. It was noteworthy that the US Department of Commerce (DoC) decided to levyimport tax on Vietnam steel in 22 May, 2018. The foreign investors continued to be net sellingposition with USD 12.98mn, focusing on VIC, MSN, and HPG.

TVS Weekly NewsBrief - The Vietnam Streetwise - Wk26.2018

03-07-2018 11:48:06

What’s on deck in economics? Inflation accelerates to highest level since March 2017. According to data released by the General Statistics Office (GSO), June 2018 CPI accelerated to 4.67% year on year (YoY), marking the 16- month highest CPI headlines since March 2017. The data supported our view in last report (The Vietnam StreetWise Wk.052018) when the base effect dropped out and cost-push inflationary pressure came from the rise in global oil prices. The annual food and transportation reached 5.10% (up from negative 3.1% last year) and 9.73% (up from 4.22% last year) respectively; contributing the most to inflation. The inflationary pressures cemented our view that SBV has no room to use the loose monetary policy in next months. (Chart of the Week) Market Watch Vietnam stock market extended its losing streak marking third weekly decline after higher June 2018 inflation data releasing. The Vnindex closed decisively lower, falling around 22.39 points, or 2.28%, to 960.8 with the investors staying concerned over higher inflation period coming back when June 2018 inflation posted 4.67% YoY. Seven of nine primary Vnindex sectors finished in negative territory, led by loss in basic material and energy, a drop in 4.33% and 3.94% respectively. The basic material sector dragged down by a decline in HPG (-6.47 %), HT1 (-1.96%) and HSG (-4.59%) when the investors feared global trade war hitting hard to commodity. The foreign investors turned to net buying position with USD 88.91mn when they accumulated around 7.8mn newly-listed YEG stocks.

TVS Weekly NewsBrief - The Vietnam Streetwise - Wk25.2018

26-06-2018 15:22:56

What’s on deck in economics?Official VND/USD devaluated slightly by 0.83% YTD following the incline of Fed’s rate. Data collected by Thomson Reuters showed that the official dong exchange rate to the U.S dollar has devaluated slightly by 0.83% YTD in nominal term following the incline of Fed’s rate. Although the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) reported a record-high foreign reserves of around US$ 63bn in the first four month of 2018, equal to around 3.6 months of import, we believe the VND will continue weaken in the remaining 2018 by 1-2% amid Fed’s intention to two more increases to key interest rates remaining in the year and persistent currency declines across the region. (Chart of the Week) Market Watch Vietnam stock market extended slide to retake below 1,000 level when the market fell into “correction” territory. The Vnindex closed sharply lower, falling around 33.34 points, or 3.28%, to 983.2, below 1,000 level amid no supportive information and global threats to trade. All nine primary Vnindex sectors finished in negative territory, led by loss in consumer cyclicals and energy, a drop in 5.76% and 5.68% respectively. The consumer cyclicals sector dragged down by a decline in VNM (-1.39 %), SAB (-3.94%) and MSN (-5.02%) when the investors took advantage of market bounce-back to get short-term profit. The foreign investors maintained net selling position with USD 29.19mn with VIC, HPG, VRE and MSN as top selling

TVS Weekly NewsBrief - The Vietnam Streetwise - Wk24.2018 VN

18-06-2018 17:37:43

What’s on deck in economics? Fed lifting the federal-fund rates to a range of 1.75% - 2% for second time in 2018. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday lifted rates by a quarter-percentage point — to a range of 1.75% to 2%; signaling, perhaps, two more increases to key interest rates remaining in the year. The rise in rate hinted foreign capital outflow from Vietnam through “carry trade” traders, in our view. Weekly average O/N rate edged down to 1.43% while the central bank withdrew a hefty value of VND 47,700 via T-bill issuance. The weekly average O/N rate fell slightly to 1.43%, from 1.6% last week. The lower O/N rate implied the back-to-normal liquidity in banking system. The central bank turned to net-withdrawal position at large scale of VND 47,700bn through T-bill issuance. It noted that T-bill was with longer tenor of 28 days and 91 days, instead of 7 days. It implies that the SBV do not wish to inject more money in next 3 months. Market Watch Vietnam stock market retreated to close lower when the investors increased their profit-taking activities. The Vnindex fell in correction territory after two-week winning streak when the investors increased their profit-taking activities as well as received no supportive macro news. Admittedly, the Vnindex fell 22.5 points, or 2.17%, to close 1016.5. All nine primary Vnindex sectors finished in negative territory, led by loss in financials and basic materials, a drop in 2.96% and 2.72% respectively. The financial sector dragged down by a decline in VHM (-2.96 %), TCB (-1.22%) and CTG (-5.18%) when the investors following “buy on dip” strategy to take short-term profit. The foreign investors turned to be net seller with USD 63.83mn, focusing on VIC and HPG, when it is the last week for ETF quarterly portfolio rebalance.   

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