Research center

Investment strategy report 2025_Leverage internal strengths

TVS Research expects NPAT of the listed firms will increase 16.2% YoY in 2025, similar to our 2024 estimated growth of 16.4% YoY. The main sectors contributing to profit growth are Banking, Real Estate, Oil & Gas, Basic Resources, and Information Technology. In 2025, we anticipate that market attention will be primarily directed towards US economic and tariff policies, as well as Vietnam's strategic responses and measures to bolster its domestic economic resilience. Our investment themes for the year will be centered around these key drivers. Theme 1: Vietnam navigates opportunities and challenges in the first year of the Trump 2.0 administration We believe that the tariff policy in the first year of Trump 2.0 will create opportunities for Vietnam's export industries, especially textile and garment. Textile and garment enterprises will benefit from improved competitiveness in the US market when Chinese goods continue to be subject to additional tariffs. Theme 2: All domestic components of Vietnamese economy will be fully mobilised Admist global economic uncertainties, TVS Research anticipates the government's comprehensive promotion of domestic economic drivers to achieve targeted growth. This will be primarily accomplished through increased public investment and revitalization of the real estate market. Regarding Public investment, TVS Research projects a record disbursement of VND 790 trillion (+16.7% year-over-year) in 2025. Recent legal reforms provide a foundation for accelerated disbursement. This increased investment, particularly in infrastructure, is expected to positively impact sectors such as infrastructure construction and construction materials sectors. Furthermore, TVS Research believes this stimulus will generate ripple effects across other sectors, including real estate and banking. We expect that the Real Estate sector will experience a remarkable recovery in 2025, driven by legal reforms, consumption and investment stimulus. Companies such as VHM, KDH, NLG, and PDR, with large land banks and effective execution capabilities, will lead this trend. Economic growth and a recovery in the real estate market will make the business environment for the Banking sector in 2025 less challenging than in 2024. We forecast that credit growth will accelerate, and asset quality in the banking sector will improve in 2025. Theme 3: The market upgrade will boost the brokerage sector TVS Research expects Vietnam's stock market to be upgraded to Secondary Emerging Market status in FTSE’s September 2025 review. This upgrade is projected to stimulate foreign capital inflows into the Vietnamese stock market and influence securities firms' operations, particularly benefiting those with established institutional client services. Theme 4: Stocks with a substaintial margin of safety may be of interest during market uncertainties TVS Research assesses 2025 as a year of high volatility. In this environment, we recommend that risk-averse investors focus on stocks with a low beta relative to the VN-Index to ensure a higher margin of safety and mitigate exposure to short-term market fluctuations. Theme 5: Positive growth prospects in a new economic cycle Looking further ahead, we believe that the global economic development trend, with a focus on artificial intelligence (AI) technology, is irreversible. Vietnam's Information Technology sector, thanks to its integration into global value chains and growth potential in emerging fields, will maintain a positive long-term outlook. Similarly, the Industrial real estate sector will also benefit as Vietnam solidifies its position as a regional manufacturing hub. In addition to long-term investment themes spanning throughout 2025, we also highlight some short-term investment opportunities. TVS Research believes that beyond fundamental factors, corporate events such as stock exchange transfers, state divestments, new listings, and stock market upgrades will be catalyst for stock prices of certain companies in 2025.