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Research center

Our product portfolio includes but is not limited to company and sector reports, technical snapshots, and monthly strategic allocation papers. TVS Research has also collaborated with Nhip Cau Dau Tu Newspaper as a strategic advisor in an annual project to determine Vietnam Top 50 Enterprises

Research reports

February Market Report

The VN-Index ended February at 1,305 points, up 3.1% compared to January 2025. The average daily trading value on the HSX reached VND 15,855 billion per session, marking a sharp increase from the previous month's average trading value (+39.2% MoM). Capital inflows were mainly concentrated at the end of the month as the VN-Index surpassed the 1,300 threshold and continued its upward momentum. In February, the stock market had a robust growth, surpassed the negative factors outlined in our January update report which was the new tariff policies of the Trump administration. Currently, although these negative factors persist, thVN-Index is maintaining above the 1,300 level thanks to (1) the regulatory authorities’ efforts to sustain an easing monetary and fiscal policy stance, (2) expectations regarding the market’s potential upgrade and the implementation of the KRX trading system in 2025, and (3) rotational support from Banking and Real Estate stocks. For March 2025, TVS Research expects that although the VN-Index could remains upward trend toward the resistance zone of 1,350 – 1,366 despite of experiencing short-term fluctuations. This is driven by the likelihood that individual investors’ capital will continue flowing into the market, as alternative investment channels are currently underperforming compared to the VN-Index.

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13/03/2025

February Macro Report

Global economy - Escalation of U.S. tariff policies has posed tax risks for Vietnam In the second half of February and early March 2025, the U.S. tariff policy continued to be implemented with 2 main directions: (1) Imposing tariffs on exports from countries with higher import tariff rates than the U.S., starting from early April 2025 (2) Continuing to impose tariffs on imports from China, Mexico, and Canada to achieve political objectives Given these developments, the risk of the U.S. imposing tariffs on Vietnam is increasing, as the country has maintained a trade surplus while also enforcing certain trade barriers on U.S. imports. Vietnam economy - Public investment activities have accelerated after the Lunar New Year In the first two months of 2025, state budget investment is estimated to reach VND 73.2 trillion (+21.7% YoY), equivalent to 8.8% of the 2025 annual plan. Export activities have yet to show significant improvement, with the first trade deficit since May 2024, leading to a decline in manufacturing activity in the first 2 months of the year Money market - Exchange rate surged; interbank interest rates remained stable The USD/VND exchange rate maintained a strong upward trend in February 2025, driven by continuous foreign currency purchases by the State Treasury and the first trade deficit since May 2024. The SBV withdrew liquidity in February but gradually shifted to net injections in early March. Interbank interest rates fluctuated between 3.8% - 5.7%, while deposit interest rates at several commercial banks were adjusted downward from late February. Commodities market - Most commodity prices declined in February, except for gold The BCOM Index remained flat in February (+0.4% MoM), primarily supported by rising gold prices. Gold prices increased (+1.3% MoM) as investors continued to accumulate holdings. Oil and iron ore prices declined, mainly due to forecasts of weaker demand in China.

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13/02/2025

January Market Report

The VN-Index ended January at 1,265 points, remaining flat compared to December 2024. The average liquidity on the HSX exchange reached VND 11,390 billion/session, marking a 22% MoM decline. According to TVS Research, the primary reason for this downturn may stem from investors' cautious sentiment regarding diplomatic and trade policies under U.S. President Donald Trump's administration. For February, TVS Research anticipates that the VN-Index may experience a correction due to several potential negative factors: Concerns over potential U.S. tariffs on Vietnamese goods: Trump has stated that the U.S. will impose tariffs on countries with a trade surplus with the U.S. and those that maintain trade barriers against American imports. While we believe Vietnam has room for negotiation to mitigate potential tariffs on its exports to the U.S., the risk of such tariffs remains a significant concern, exerting pressure on the market. We expect that the sharp increase in the USD/VND exchange rate and interbank interest rates during the first week of February could also impact investor sentiment and capital inflows into the market. Declining market liquidity: The ongoing decrease in investment inflows poses further challenges for the VN-Index in February 2025. Foreign investors persist in net selling due to concerns over trade war risks, while domestic investors are reallocating assets to other investment channels, such as gold and cryptocurrencies, which have demonstrated stronger performance in recent periods.

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13/02/2025

January Macro Report

Global economy – The US implemented stricter tariff policies, increasing inflation risks. In January and early February 2025, the Donald Trump administration announced new tariffs on goods from several countries, including China, Canada, and Mexico, as well as on imported steel and aluminium. TVS Research believes this move aims to pressure these nations into compromising on Trump’s proposals rather than serving as a trade punishment. Vietnam may also face tariffs following Trump’s latest announcement. However, we believe that Vietnam has foundation to negotiate on mitigating country-tailored tariff targeted at Vietnam’s export to US. Vietnam Economy – Decline in export & import and slow industrial production start Industrial production had a slow start in January 2025 due to a decline in orders and the early and extended Lunar New Year holiday compared to the same period in 2024. Total retail sales of goods and services increased by 9.5% YoY as consumers spent more during the Lunar New Year. Money market – Exchange rates and interbank rates rose The USD/VND exchange rate decreased in January 2025 as major tariff policies have not been announced by the US President. Interbank interest rates fluctuated between 4.0 – 5.5% since the beginning of the year, indicating that liquidity in the banking system was not abundant. TVS Research forecasts that deposit interest rates in 2025 could rise by roughly 50 bps YoY. Commodities market – Prices increased in January Global commodities prices rose in January, primarily driven by increases in gold and oil prices. Gold prices surged (+6.5% MoM) as investors accumulated assets due to concerns over inflation and trade wars, while crude oil prices rose by 2.8% MoM. Other commodities we track, including iron ore and wheat, also experienced price increases in January.

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03/03/2025

Industry reports

Investment strategy report 2025_Leverage internal strengths

TVS Research expects NPAT of the listed firms will increase 16.2% YoY in 2025, similar to our 2024 estimated growth of 16.4% YoY. The main sectors contributing to profit growth are Banking, Real Estate, Oil & Gas, Basic Resources, and Information Technology. In 2025, we anticipate that market attention will be primarily directed towards US economic and tariff policies, as well as Vietnam's strategic responses and measures to bolster its domestic economic resilience. Our investment themes for the year will be centered around these key drivers. Theme 1: Vietnam navigates opportunities and challenges in the first year of the Trump 2.0 administration We believe that the tariff policy in the first year of Trump 2.0 will create opportunities for Vietnam's export industries, especially textile and garment. Textile and garment enterprises will benefit from improved competitiveness in the US market when Chinese goods continue to be subject to additional tariffs. Theme 2: All domestic components of Vietnamese economy will be fully mobilised Admist global economic uncertainties, TVS Research anticipates the government's comprehensive promotion of domestic economic drivers to achieve targeted growth. This will be primarily accomplished through increased public investment and revitalization of the real estate market. Regarding Public investment, TVS Research projects a record disbursement of VND 790 trillion (+16.7% year-over-year) in 2025. Recent legal reforms provide a foundation for accelerated disbursement. This increased investment, particularly in infrastructure, is expected to positively impact sectors such as infrastructure construction and construction materials sectors. Furthermore, TVS Research believes this stimulus will generate ripple effects across other sectors, including real estate and banking. We expect that the Real Estate sector will experience a remarkable recovery in 2025, driven by legal reforms, consumption and investment stimulus. Companies such as VHM, KDH, NLG, and PDR, with large land banks and effective execution capabilities, will lead this trend. Economic growth and a recovery in the real estate market will make the business environment for the Banking sector in 2025 less challenging than in 2024. We forecast that credit growth will accelerate, and asset quality in the banking sector will improve in 2025. Theme 3: The market upgrade will boost the brokerage sector TVS Research expects Vietnam's stock market to be upgraded to Secondary Emerging Market status in FTSE’s September 2025 review. This upgrade is projected to stimulate foreign capital inflows into the Vietnamese stock market and influence securities firms' operations, particularly benefiting those with established institutional client services. Theme 4: Stocks with a substaintial margin of safety may be of interest during market uncertainties TVS Research assesses 2025 as a year of high volatility. In this environment, we recommend that risk-averse investors focus on stocks with a low beta relative to the VN-Index to ensure a higher margin of safety and mitigate exposure to short-term market fluctuations. Theme 5: Positive growth prospects in a new economic cycle Looking further ahead, we believe that the global economic development trend, with a focus on artificial intelligence (AI) technology, is irreversible. Vietnam's Information Technology sector, thanks to its integration into global value chains and growth potential in emerging fields, will maintain a positive long-term outlook. Similarly, the Industrial real estate sector will also benefit as Vietnam solidifies its position as a regional manufacturing hub. In addition to long-term investment themes spanning throughout 2025, we also highlight some short-term investment opportunities. TVS Research believes that beyond fundamental factors, corporate events such as stock exchange transfers, state divestments, new listings, and stock market upgrades will be catalyst for stock prices of certain companies in 2025.

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