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Research center

Our product portfolio includes but is not limited to company and sector reports, technical snapshots, and monthly strategic allocation papers. TVS Research has also collaborated with Nhip Cau Dau Tu Newspaper as a strategic advisor in an annual project to determine Vietnam Top 50 Enterprises

Research reports

H2 2025 Macro Strategy Report

Global Economy – Global economic growth is expected to weaken in the H2 2025 due to the burden of tariffs On April 2, 2025, the US announced reciprocal tariffs on imports from over 90 trading partners. However, the enforcement was temporarily postponed to July 9 and subsequently to August 1. In response, many countries sharply increased their exports to mitigate the potential negative impacts, creating a short-term boost to global economic growth in the H1. We revised our forecast for global economic growth in 2025 down from 2.7% to 2.3%. In the US, slowing economic growth coupled with rising inflation will complicate the Fed’s rate-cut decision. Nevertheless, we maintain our view that the FEDwill lower its policy rate by 50bps. In China, we assume economic growth to decelerate in H2 2025 as US reciprocal tariffs begin to weigh on manufacturing and exports. Vietnam Macroeconomy – Public investment and retail & services will be the main drivers of economic growth in H2 2025 TVS Research maintains our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Vietnam at 7.2%. While the export turnover growth forecast was revised down to 9.8% (from the previous 11.0%) due to the impact of tariffs on US and global consumer demand, domestic drivers are expected to offset this decline. We believe that accelerated public investment disbursement and stronger retail & service activity compared to H1 2025 will be the key growth drivers in H2 2025. Monetary Market - Exchange rate pressures are expected to ease in H2 TVS Research believes the SBV will adopt a flexible monetary policy stance to support economic growth, thereby maintaining low interest rates through the end of 2025. TVS Research forecasts the average USD/VND exchange rate to increase by approximately 3.5% in 2025. The pace of VND depreciation is expected to slow in H2 2025 as USD supply improves thanks to stronger FDI inflows and remittances toward year-end. Additionally, a potential FED rate cut would narrow the interest rate differential between the VND and the USD.

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25/06/2025

May Macro Report

Global economy – The US and China reached a tariff agreement that will pave the way for negotiations involving other countries The US and China have reached a provisional tariff agreement, under which US import tariffs are set at 55% and Chinese’s at 10%. This reflects the US’s willingness to adjust tariff levels in pursuit of certain trade or political objectives. For Vietnam, we believe negotiations will be more challenging, as the criteria set forth by the US primarily aim to reduce the volume of Chinese goods entering Vietnam. In the near term, Vietnam may strengthen coordination on origin tracing to limit transshipment activities from China. However, reducing imports from China will be difficult, as these goods are input materials for many companies, most of which are FDI enterprises. Vietnam economy – Export value to the US in May 2025 reached the highest level in history Export - import growth is expected to accelerate throughout Q2 2025 but is projected to slow down in Q3. Manufacturing PMI and IIP have only shown a short-term recovery, driven by rising output. While registered FDI in May surged significantly compared to the same period last year (+100% YoY), driven by inflows into the Real Estate sector. Public investment disbursement increased strongly in May 2025 (+17.5% YoY), raising the 5-month disbursement rate to 24.3%, higher than the same period in 2024.

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14/05/2025

April Macro Report

Global Macro – TVS Research believes the FED will maintain interest rates in the coming months amid uncertainty over its policy targets. In April, Vietnam dispatched a negotiation delegation to the US to discuss reducing reciprocal tariffs imposed on export goods. Nevertheless, TVS Research notes that the US-Vietnam trade negotiation process may be prolonged due to stringent US demands. In the US, the FED continued to delay interest cuts amid concerns over a potential inflation rebound and a still-resilient economy. However, the central bank may need to reassess its policy as early signs of economic weakening, even before reciprocal tariffs take effect. Vietnam Macro – TVS Research expects that Vietnam’s exports are poised for robust growth through Q2 2025. Companies exporting to the US are accelerating production to fulfill orders ahead of the reciprocal tariff deadline on July 9. New orders declined sharply in April, reflecting growing concerns among foreign firms over the outcome of trade negotiations with the US.

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13/03/2025

February Market Report

The VN-Index ended February at 1,305 points, up 3.1% compared to January 2025. The average daily trading value on the HSX reached VND 15,855 billion per session, marking a sharp increase from the previous month's average trading value (+39.2% MoM). Capital inflows were mainly concentrated at the end of the month as the VN-Index surpassed the 1,300 threshold and continued its upward momentum. In February, the stock market had a robust growth, surpassed the negative factors outlined in our January update report which was the new tariff policies of the Trump administration. Currently, although these negative factors persist, thVN-Index is maintaining above the 1,300 level thanks to (1) the regulatory authorities’ efforts to sustain an easing monetary and fiscal policy stance, (2) expectations regarding the market’s potential upgrade and the implementation of the KRX trading system in 2025, and (3) rotational support from Banking and Real Estate stocks. For March 2025, TVS Research expects that although the VN-Index could remains upward trend toward the resistance zone of 1,350 – 1,366 despite of experiencing short-term fluctuations. This is driven by the likelihood that individual investors’ capital will continue flowing into the market, as alternative investment channels are currently underperforming compared to the VN-Index.

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13/03/2025

February Macro Report

Global economy - Escalation of U.S. tariff policies has posed tax risks for Vietnam In the second half of February and early March 2025, the U.S. tariff policy continued to be implemented with 2 main directions: (1) Imposing tariffs on exports from countries with higher import tariff rates than the U.S., starting from early April 2025 (2) Continuing to impose tariffs on imports from China, Mexico, and Canada to achieve political objectives Given these developments, the risk of the U.S. imposing tariffs on Vietnam is increasing, as the country has maintained a trade surplus while also enforcing certain trade barriers on U.S. imports. Vietnam economy - Public investment activities have accelerated after the Lunar New Year In the first two months of 2025, state budget investment is estimated to reach VND 73.2 trillion (+21.7% YoY), equivalent to 8.8% of the 2025 annual plan. Export activities have yet to show significant improvement, with the first trade deficit since May 2024, leading to a decline in manufacturing activity in the first 2 months of the year Money market - Exchange rate surged; interbank interest rates remained stable The USD/VND exchange rate maintained a strong upward trend in February 2025, driven by continuous foreign currency purchases by the State Treasury and the first trade deficit since May 2024. The SBV withdrew liquidity in February but gradually shifted to net injections in early March. Interbank interest rates fluctuated between 3.8% - 5.7%, while deposit interest rates at several commercial banks were adjusted downward from late February. Commodities market - Most commodity prices declined in February, except for gold The BCOM Index remained flat in February (+0.4% MoM), primarily supported by rising gold prices. Gold prices increased (+1.3% MoM) as investors continued to accumulate holdings. Oil and iron ore prices declined, mainly due to forecasts of weaker demand in China.

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