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Address: Room 402, TĐL Building, 22 Lang Ha, Dong Da District, Hanoi

Research center

Our product portfolio includes but is not limited to company and sector reports, technical snapshots, and monthly strategic allocation papers. TVS Research has also collaborated with Nhip Cau Dau Tu Newspaper as a strategic advisor in an annual project to determine Vietnam Top 50 Enterprises

Research reports

January Market Report

The VN-Index ended January at 1,265 points, remaining flat compared to December 2024. The average liquidity on the HSX exchange reached VND 11,390 billion/session, marking a 22% MoM decline. According to TVS Research, the primary reason for this downturn may stem from investors' cautious sentiment regarding diplomatic and trade policies under U.S. President Donald Trump's administration. For February, TVS Research anticipates that the VN-Index may experience a correction due to several potential negative factors: Concerns over potential U.S. tariffs on Vietnamese goods: Trump has stated that the U.S. will impose tariffs on countries with a trade surplus with the U.S. and those that maintain trade barriers against American imports. While we believe Vietnam has room for negotiation to mitigate potential tariffs on its exports to the U.S., the risk of such tariffs remains a significant concern, exerting pressure on the market. We expect that the sharp increase in the USD/VND exchange rate and interbank interest rates during the first week of February could also impact investor sentiment and capital inflows into the market. Declining market liquidity: The ongoing decrease in investment inflows poses further challenges for the VN-Index in February 2025. Foreign investors persist in net selling due to concerns over trade war risks, while domestic investors are reallocating assets to other investment channels, such as gold and cryptocurrencies, which have demonstrated stronger performance in recent periods.

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13/02/2025

January Macro Report

Global economy – The US implemented stricter tariff policies, increasing inflation risks. In January and early February 2025, the Donald Trump administration announced new tariffs on goods from several countries, including China, Canada, and Mexico, as well as on imported steel and aluminium. TVS Research believes this move aims to pressure these nations into compromising on Trump’s proposals rather than serving as a trade punishment. Vietnam may also face tariffs following Trump’s latest announcement. However, we believe that Vietnam has foundation to negotiate on mitigating country-tailored tariff targeted at Vietnam’s export to US. Vietnam Economy – Decline in export & import and slow industrial production start Industrial production had a slow start in January 2025 due to a decline in orders and the early and extended Lunar New Year holiday compared to the same period in 2024. Total retail sales of goods and services increased by 9.5% YoY as consumers spent more during the Lunar New Year. Money market – Exchange rates and interbank rates rose The USD/VND exchange rate decreased in January 2025 as major tariff policies have not been announced by the US President. Interbank interest rates fluctuated between 4.0 – 5.5% since the beginning of the year, indicating that liquidity in the banking system was not abundant. TVS Research forecasts that deposit interest rates in 2025 could rise by roughly 50 bps YoY. Commodities market – Prices increased in January Global commodities prices rose in January, primarily driven by increases in gold and oil prices. Gold prices surged (+6.5% MoM) as investors accumulated assets due to concerns over inflation and trade wars, while crude oil prices rose by 2.8% MoM. Other commodities we track, including iron ore and wheat, also experienced price increases in January.

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03/03/2025

Industry reports

Investment strategy report 2025_Leverage internal strengths

TVS Research expects NPAT of the listed firms will increase 16.2% YoY in 2025, similar to our 2024 estimated growth of 16.4% YoY. The main sectors contributing to profit growth are Banking, Real Estate, Oil & Gas, Basic Resources, and Information Technology. In 2025, we anticipate that market attention will be primarily directed towards US economic and tariff policies, as well as Vietnam's strategic responses and measures to bolster its domestic economic resilience. Our investment themes for the year will be centered around these key drivers. Theme 1: Vietnam navigates opportunities and challenges in the first year of the Trump 2.0 administration We believe that the tariff policy in the first year of Trump 2.0 will create opportunities for Vietnam's export industries, especially textile and garment. Textile and garment enterprises will benefit from improved competitiveness in the US market when Chinese goods continue to be subject to additional tariffs. Theme 2: All domestic components of Vietnamese economy will be fully mobilised Admist global economic uncertainties, TVS Research anticipates the government's comprehensive promotion of domestic economic drivers to achieve targeted growth. This will be primarily accomplished through increased public investment and revitalization of the real estate market. Regarding Public investment, TVS Research projects a record disbursement of VND 790 trillion (+16.7% year-over-year) in 2025. Recent legal reforms provide a foundation for accelerated disbursement. This increased investment, particularly in infrastructure, is expected to positively impact sectors such as infrastructure construction and construction materials sectors. Furthermore, TVS Research believes this stimulus will generate ripple effects across other sectors, including real estate and banking. We expect that the Real Estate sector will experience a remarkable recovery in 2025, driven by legal reforms, consumption and investment stimulus. Companies such as VHM, KDH, NLG, and PDR, with large land banks and effective execution capabilities, will lead this trend. Economic growth and a recovery in the real estate market will make the business environment for the Banking sector in 2025 less challenging than in 2024. We forecast that credit growth will accelerate, and asset quality in the banking sector will improve in 2025. Theme 3: The market upgrade will boost the brokerage sector TVS Research expects Vietnam's stock market to be upgraded to Secondary Emerging Market status in FTSE’s September 2025 review. This upgrade is projected to stimulate foreign capital inflows into the Vietnamese stock market and influence securities firms' operations, particularly benefiting those with established institutional client services. Theme 4: Stocks with a substaintial margin of safety may be of interest during market uncertainties TVS Research assesses 2025 as a year of high volatility. In this environment, we recommend that risk-averse investors focus on stocks with a low beta relative to the VN-Index to ensure a higher margin of safety and mitigate exposure to short-term market fluctuations. Theme 5: Positive growth prospects in a new economic cycle Looking further ahead, we believe that the global economic development trend, with a focus on artificial intelligence (AI) technology, is irreversible. Vietnam's Information Technology sector, thanks to its integration into global value chains and growth potential in emerging fields, will maintain a positive long-term outlook. Similarly, the Industrial real estate sector will also benefit as Vietnam solidifies its position as a regional manufacturing hub. In addition to long-term investment themes spanning throughout 2025, we also highlight some short-term investment opportunities. TVS Research believes that beyond fundamental factors, corporate events such as stock exchange transfers, state divestments, new listings, and stock market upgrades will be catalyst for stock prices of certain companies in 2025.

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28/02/2025

2025 Market Strategy Report

Vietnam’s stock market experienced significant fluctuations in 2024. The decline in investment flows caused the VN-Index to sideway for nearly the entire year. In 2025, TVS Research believes that the VN-Index could reach the range of 1,380 – 1,400 thanks to the following factors: - According to our macroeconomics base scenario, Donald Trump is unlikely to impose tariffs on Vietnamese imports in 2025. TVS Research assesses that Vietnam meets the conditions to negotiate with the U.S. to avoid the imposition of tariffs - Vietnam's GDP will continue growing at the pace of 7.2% YoY, providing support for the stock market - Foreign investors may return to Vietnam after FTSE Russell upgrades Vietnam’s stock market - TVS Research forecasts a 16.2% YoY growth in market-wide profits, with the main contributions coming from the Banking and Real Estate sectors From our technical perspective, based on the large accumulation base forming on the chart and the VN-Index moving within the upward wave (III) according to the Elliott wave model, the VN-Index may target a major resistance zone around the 1,400-point area this year.

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28/02/2025

2025 Macro Strategy Report

Global economy – Global economic growth may decelerate in 2025 due to the impact of tariff burdens TVS Research expects the United States will begin imposing tariffs on goods from China and several other countries in 2025. This is expected to disrupt global supply chains, potentially slowing global economic growth and increasing inflation worldwide. In the U.S., we forecast that the economy will grow by 2.8% YoY in 2025, maintaining the same pace as in 2024. Conversely, China’s economic growth is expected to decelerate due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies. Vietnam macroeconomics – Accelerating public investment in 2025 acts as a catalyst for robust economic growth TVS Research forecasts that Vietnam's GDP growth will reach 7.2% in 2025, driven by several key factors: (1) The government is expected to implement an expansionary fiscal policy, focusing on public investment projects and infrastructure development (2) Exports are projected to grow by 11% YoY, assuming the U.S. does not impose new tariffs on Vietnam in 2025 (3) Government support policies are anticipated to stimulate domestic consumption. Monetary market – Maintaining an expansionary monetary policy TVS Research expects the SBV to remain flexible in its monetary policy management, aiming to support economic growth. TVS Research projects that the USD/VND exchange rate will increase by approximately 3% in 2025. We assess that the potential strengthening of the U.S. dollar, driven by economic and trade policies under Donald Trump's second term, along with a slower pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, are the primary factors exerting pressure on the USD/VND exchange rate.

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