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TVS Weekly NewsBrief - Wk23.2019

11-06-2019 15:09:29

What’s on deck in economics? May 2019 PMI ticked down despite of expansion stage. The headline Vietnam Manufacturing PMI posted 52.0 in May, down marginally from 52.5 in April but still representing an improvement in business conditions - a reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction. Both output and new orders increase when securing of new customer and increasing of export orders at solid pace, according Nikkei report. The report added that Business confidence improved for the third month running to the highest since last November. Optimism regarding output growth reflected expected increases in new orders and new product launches. Market Watch Vietnam stock market experienced high volatility to end flat week. The Vietnam stock market bounced back by Friday, after dip 1.4% in Monday to end flat week. The Vnindex lost 1.6 points, or 0.32%, to close 958. Most local investors chose “wait-and-see” approach when weighting on trade war risk and oil volatility. Trading activity saw a dip with USD 134mn traded daily on HSX exchange, 6.5% down from last week. The HSX Exchange reported USD 5.2mn net-sold by foreign investors on the market.

DHG [NOT-RATE] - Headwinds to 1Q2019 Sales Growth - Flash Notes - 04 June 2019

05-06-2019 15:58:33

We attended the 1Q19 analyst meeting of DHG on June 4th 2018 and below are key notes:   2019 AGM KEY PROPOSALS (June 6th 2019) ·         2019 company guidance: o    Total sales of VND 3,943bn (+1.4% YoY), in which VND 3,560bn for manufacturing goods (+12.3% YoY) and VND 383bn for merchandises (-46% YoY); low sales plan for merchandises due to the termination of distributing MSD and Eugica products since mid-2018 to facilitate FOL uplift according to Decree 54/2017/ND-CP o    NPBT of VND 754bn (+3% YoY) and NPAT of VND 706bn (+8% YoY); higher growth plan for NPAT based on tax allowance for new factory

MWG [+42% - BUY] - BHX on the track - Equity Update - 29 May 2019

29-05-2019 17:46:03

We reiterate BUY rating for MWG with 12M TP of VND 124,000 (previously VND 114,000) – a 42% upside including 2019F DPS of VND 1,000. Below are key notes: 1Q19 performance: DMX & BHX grew while TGDD declined in sales ·      MWG posted revenue of VND 25,017bn (+10% YoY & 23% of 2019 guidance); Revenue structure was DMX 58%, TGDD 35%, BHX 7% (1Q18: DMX 55%, TGDD 42%, BHX 3%). ·      Outlet network as at 31/3/2019: 1,023 TGDD stores (-18 stores vs. end-2018, mostly converted into DMX mini), 774 DMX stores (+24 stores vs. end-2018) in which 500 are DMX mini (150-200m2) & rest are DMX standard (400m2+), 469 BHX stores (64 stores vs. end-2018) in which 420 are BHX standard (150-200m2) & rest are BHX large (300m2+). Rest of 2019 outlook: BHX will stay on track ·      Accelerate BHX store expansion to achieve 800 stores by year-end; the acceleration has started since March as 46/64 BHX new stores in 1Q19 were opened in this month ·      Negotiate with FMCG suppliers to increase GPM for packaged items at BHX by 1-1.5% and with fresh foods suppliers to extend fresh SKUs, focusing on fruits and vegetable

TVS Weekly NewsBrief - Wk21.2019

28-05-2019 18:05:07

What’s on deck in economics? May’s first half showed trade deficit of USD 1.85bn. According to data released by General Department of Vietnam Customs, the estimated export and import value was USD 9.69bn and USD 11.54 bn respectively, leaving the trade deficit of USD 1.85bn in May’s first half. The combined trade deficit recorded over USD 1bn as imports amounted to USD 89.909 billion, while exports reached only USD 88.9 billion. We noted that the top export decreased broadly, resulting from the slow global trade with US-Sino tension. The phone and accessories export categories decreased slightly by 0.1% that implied the slow growth of Samsung’s products. Market Watch Vietnam stock market pulled back on fears of global volatility. The Vietnam stock market ended lower this week when the global markets continued tumble. The Vnindex lost 6.45 points, or 0.7%, to close 970. The local investors sized up trade war risk and global oil volatility. All largest market captial stocks finished in negative territory. Shares of VNM fell 3.76% WoW when Kantar Report showed that FMCG market showed a continued slowdown in Urban 4 key cities. VHM’s shares lost 2.54% WoW although the company announced aggressive 2019 earning growth plan of 40%. The HSX Exchange reported USD 219mn net-bought by foreign investors on the market. However, apart from VIC, other stocks recorded captial outflow of USD 25mn.

DPM [SELL] - Headwind Ahead - AGM Notes - 23 April 2019

23-04-2019 14:07:50

DPM recently hold AGM with some below key points: 2018 Performance: Rising oil price and tough competition continue to hit earnings result ·         2018 core performance: In 2018, revenue reached VND 9,297bn (+16.3% YoY), and PAT achieved VND 700bn (+0% YoY). Urea production was 816,000 tons (+2% YoY). Urea consumption volume was 812,000 tons (+2% YoY). Urea gross profit margin decreased by c.8%, to 28% due to an increase of 30% natural gas price, eating marginal increase of 11 % selling price. Urea plant operated efficiently with an uptime of 92% throughout the year. ·         Mega project showed unstable. The two plants put into operation since Jan, 2018 and Q3/2018 with a 91% uptime. The company sold total 140,000 tons NPK in 2018 with 34,600 tons were self-produced. ·         Chemical segments delivered worst performance. Low demand, due to domestic tough fertilizer industry, led to a slowdown in chemical sales such as UFC85, CO2, etc. ·         Cash dividend. The company plans to pay 10% cash dividend (on par) FY2018 with 5% advance cash payment in 2018. The remaining 5% will be paid in Q2/2019.

PHR [+29% - BUY] - New Exposure to Industrial Park Segment - AGM note PHR - 02 April 2019

02-04-2019 14:28:38

Phuoc Hoa Rubber JSC., company recently held the Annual General Meeting with following key points: 2018 Business Performance Review. In FY2018, revenue and net profit achieved VND 1,721bn and VND 519bn, exceeding 9% and 45% target plan, respectively. The average natural rubber price remained low, at VND 31.4 million per ton in 2018, decreasing by 22% YoY. 2019 earnings outlook. PHR’s parent company sets the VND 2,192bn revenue and VND 1,246bn net profit before tax targets for 2019.  In which, rubber segment will contribute VND 75bn to net profit before tax. Meanwhile, land transfer and rubber wood continue to be a key growth driver for the company. In 2019-2020, PHR will transfer 1,000 ha land for VSIP3 and NTC with total profit of VND 2,000bn. In 2020-2025, PHR will invest new industrial park company in Hoi Nghia (Nam Tan Uyen District, Binh Duong) with total land size of 650 ha. For the long term, PHR plans to transfer total rubber land of 4,500 ha for industrial park development in 2020-2025. In 2019, PHR will divest from Geruco Song Con Hydropower JSC.,, Nam Tan Uyen IP JSC., and Phuoc Hoa – DakLak Rubber Ltd., with total investment value of VND 130bn. PHR will use the divestment proceeds to acquire 20% VSIP II stake.

PHR [+32% - BUY] - Industrial Park Development is A Game Changer - Equity Update - 22 Feb 2019

22-02-2019 16:20:32

2018 Business Performance Review. Despite a fall in rubber price, PHR continued to deliver a strong growth thank to rising wood price, increasing rubber-tree liquidation area and land transfer value. In FY2018, revenue and net profit achieved VND 1,721bn and VND 519bn, exceeding 9% and 45% target plan, respectively. The average natural rubber price remained low, at VND 32.9 million per ton in 2018, decreasing by 18% YoY. 2019 earnings outlook. Amid a low rubber price, PHR sets 2019 plan with around VND 1,600bn in revenue and VND 1,300bn in profit before tax. Land transfer and rubber wood liquidation play key growth driver. The company plans to liquidate ~ 1,000ha rubber wood and transfer ~ 650ha land for industrial parks development. As rubber price remains low, rubber segment is expected to contribute a marginal portion for the company’s total income. In 2019, rubber exploitation and rubber consumption volume will amount 11,500 tons and 26,500 tons, respectively. We expect PHR’s revenue and net profit will achieve VND 1,562bn (+0% YoY) and VND 1,287bn (+107% YoY) in 2019.

PNJ [+28.1% - BUY] - Diamond & Gemstone Category as Key Growth Driver - Equity Update - 18 Feb 2019

18-02-2019 00:00:00

2018 snapshots: Diamond & Gemstone jewelry is key to SSSG & margin upswingPNJ ends 2018 with VND 14,680bn in sales (+33% YoY) and VND 960bn in NPAT (+32.5% YoY). The continuously breakneck growth is attributable to: 1) 20% SSSG of gold jewelry retail, 2) overall margin improved by 160 bps to 18.9%, and 3) 61 new stores, grossing 324 stores nationwide. Our research indicates the primary factors to SSSG & margin upswing are accelerated demand for jewelry products and the increasing proportion of diamond & gemstone jewelry in gold retail.2019F outlook: Key themes are Diamond & Gemstone jewelry, New collections & Data-driven customer approachWe estimate PNJ to achieve VND 18,145bn in sales (+23.6% YoY) and VND 1,249bn in NPAT (+30.1% YoY) in 2019F. Followings are our key assumptions:Diamond & Gemstone jewelry to continue rising its proportion in gold retail as company guidance, which consequentially allows PNJ to increase both ticket size and margin in long run. Silver retail to recover as PNJ plans to redesign its silver collections towards more bold and larger pieces. We estimate 5% SSSG and 65% GPM for this unit in 2019. Wholesales & gold bar to see 20% YoY growth in sales (same as 2018) while export sales to see 10% YoY growth (2018: +25.6% YoY). 50 new stores, including 44 PNJ Gold, 3 CAO Fine and 3 watches stores. SG&A expenses to sales ratio to remain stable at 10.5% (2018: 10.4%).