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TVS Weekly NewsBrief - The Vietnam Streetwise - Wk08.2018

26-02-2018 10:45:59

What’s on deck in economics? A strong start for merchandise trade. Estimates released by the General Statistics Office (GSO) showed that export rose by 32.5% YoY, to USD 19bn in January while imports surged by 46.4% YoY, reaching USD 19.3bn. The robust growth rate of export reflects continued strong momentum from riding the global trade wave. In particular, exports of phones and accessories, manufactured and distributed globally by Samsung, rose by 80.3% YoY, to USD 4.2bn. Despite the spike in export turnover, the even faster pace of import growth led to a trade deficit of USD 0.3bn, marking the widest shortfall since May 2017. Rapidly rising output from manufacturing’s sector increased demand for imports of immediate goods, particularly the import growth of manufacturing materials spiked to 65.96% YoY. We expect the Vietnam trade growth maintained strong in 2018 given that the mega-regional trade deal, now called CP-TPP, is approaching to close in March 2018 in principle. (Chart of the The Week). Market Watch Vietnam stock market kicked off the 1st week of Lunar New Year in upbeat fashion with financials and consumer non-cyclical led the gains. Vietnam stocks jolted higher after long-awaited trading sentiment in long Tet holiday and good signal from global stocks. The Vnindex notched 43.12 points, or 4.07%, to finish weekly session at 1,102, benefiting from sharp gains in financials and consumer non-cyclical sectors, two largest market capital sectors. The financial sectors advanced 6.41%, leading by BVH (+13.03%), CTG (+11.73%), VCB (+11.51%) and VIC (+6.35%) while consumer non-cyclical sectors rose 3.29%. Meanwhile, the foreign investors were in net selling position with USD 5.8mn, marking two consecutive net selling weeks, to take profit. The top selling stocks is HPG and VJC.

CTD [+11.5% - HOLD] - Lower Gross Margin Weighted Down Valuation - 2017 Equity Update - 21 Feb 2018

22-02-2018 16:03:48

2018 Outlook – Headwinds from 15% fall in 2017 newly signed contract projects together with gross margin pressure. The FY2018 backlog is estimated VND 22,802bn (+2% YoY) which was below our expectation of VND 24,050bn. We think the shortage was due to VinCity’s delay in FY2017. In addition, 15% fall in newly signed contracts in FY2017 increase the backlog burn rate in FY18 and become a leading indicator for FY18 slowing revenue growth. We forecast CTD will achieve a revenue of VND 30,462bn (+12% YoY) of which construction still accounts for 99.7%. We estimate new contract signed in FY18 will be VND 27,498bn. We forecast FY18’s revenue would be contributed by 79% of backlog transferred from FY17 and 21% of new contracts in 2018. We conservatively reduce full year gross margin to 7% to reflect our concern on residential high-end segment slow-down. Gross profit would be VND 2,150bn (+7% YoY). We still expect CTD to enjoy a strong financial income (VND 276bn), but this amount would be lower than in FY2017 as there will cash disbursements to new revenue platform. Net income arrives at VND 1,699bn (+3% YoY). EPS forward is VND 20,438. Valuation. We revise down our 12-month target price for CTD to VND 206,353 (+11.5% potential upside before dividend yield.) using DCF method. A lower target price reflects our concerns over a not-yet-contribution of new growth platform while core business would witness thinner gross margin and slowing revenue growth.

TVS Weekly NewsBrief - The Vietnam Streetwise - Wk06.2018

12-02-2018 09:06:26

What’s on deck in economics? Retail Sales Continued to Rise despite slowing pace. According to data released by the General Statistics Office (GSO), the value of retail sales (at current prices) posted growth of 9.5% year on year following a 10.9% peak in December 2017, marking first six months of slowing growth. The slowing pace is attributed to mostly the trade segment. The trade segment, which account for 75.33% of all retail sales, has managed to do moderately with sales up by 7.6% (vs. 7.0% in December 2017). In contrast to slowing pace in trade segment, the tourism and hotel/restaurant segments performed very well, recording growth of 17.8% and 20.8% year on year respectively. We continue to expect Vietnam retail sector to experience robust growth on the back of: (i) rising income and favorable demographics, and (ii) government effort to reduce red tape, focusing on food retail, electricity and e-commerce managed by Ministry of Industry and Trade. Given that, foreign investors’ increasing interest in Vietnam’s retail sector is unsurprising. Market Watch VNindex clawed back 101 points of week’s steep loss. The stock market saw a surge in volatility and turmoil when margin was under pressure, coupled with bad sentiment from global stock market. The Vnindex slumped 101 points, or 9.15%, to finish weekly session at 1,003.90, posting largest weekly drops since 22 Feburary 2008. Losses on HSX bourse were broad-based with all sectors finishing with losses. The energy sector was the biggest losers, tanking 18.58% after the unsustained oil price recovery, followed by consumer non-cyclicals and financials, which all fell more than 8%. The bright side of the market may be the net-buying stance from the foreigners with total USD 181.13bn. They took use of sell-off sessions to accumulate the retail-exposed stocks, such as VRE, HDB and MWG.

TVS Weekly NewsBrief - The Vietnam Streetwise - Wk05.2018

05-02-2018 09:29:43

What’s on deck in economics? Inflationary pressures continued to ease. According to data released by the General Statistics Office (GSO), January 2018 CPI grew by 2.65% year on year, marking the sixth consecutive month of slowing headline inflation since August 2017. Food and foodstuff price deflation, which began in April 2017, was again the main factor behind the easing of the headline figure – prices for food and foodstuffs contracted by 1.14% in January 2018, following a 1.80% fall in December 2017. In other words, the food and foodstuff dragged 0.44% CPI down at contribution component level. We believe the food prices will start to pick up from April 2018 as base effects begin to drop out the headline figures. In addition, a forecast pick-up in global oil prices will lead to cost-push inflationary pressures. Market Watch VNindex logged first down week of 2018 as major sectors dropped. The stock market retreated from positive territory amid end-month margin pressures. The selling forces built up throughout the week when the market sentiment took a break before Lunar New Year. The Vnindex fell 10.06 points, or 0.95%, to 1105, marking first down week of 2018. Losses on HSX bourse were broad-based with seven of nine main sectors finishing with losses. We believe it like a correction when market had been overextended and right now is a perfect time for a pullback. The foreign investors remained net-buyers albeit decreasing size of USD 1.73mn with VIC, MWG and SSI as top buying stocks. It suggested the investors rush in the Vietnam economy powered by consumers.

TVS Weekly NewsBrief - The Vietnam Streetwise - Wk.04.2018

29-01-2018 09:49:41

What’s on deck in economics? 2018 credit growth targeted to 17%. The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) announced that the estimated 2017 credit growth was c.18.2%, down slightly from 18.25% in 2016. It also set the 2018 credit growth target of 17%. Partly, the robust rate of credit growth fueled the surging economic growth to a ten-year high of 6.8% in 2017. We believe, however, the factor will be difficult to sustain when 2018 expected inflation remains under pressure. In addition, many trouble banks are still wary of extending credit because of the still-high level of non-performing loans in the industry. The current ratio of NPL, SML and NPL sold to VAMC was c.7.91% in 2017 Market Watch VNindex steamed up after two-day trading halt; and energy, technology and financials sectors led the gains. The stock market was heading into its most exciting week of the new year after two-day trading halt occurred due to technical software issues. The Vnindex surged 53.57 points, or 5.04%, to 1115.6, booking a fourth straight weekly advance. A spate of upbeat earnings coupled with an equity rush fueled the market. The energy sector was particular outperformer, jumping 6.24% owa on the back of oil price rebound while technology and financial sectors were up 5.81% and 4.84% respectively. The foreign investors remained net-buyers totaling USD 73mn with HDB, VIC and MSN as top buying stocks. It suggested the investors rush in the Vietnam economy powered by consumers.

TVS Weekly NewsBrief - The Vietnam Streetwise - Wk.03.2018

22-01-2018 09:05:40

What’s on deck in economics? NPL ratio declined moderately in 2017. The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) said that the ratio of non-performing loans (NPL), NPLs sold to the Vietnam Asset Management Company (VAMC) and “special mention” loans has declined to 7.91% in 2017, from 10.08% at end-2016. Meanwhile the bad debt registered to banks’ balance sheet recorded 2.30% at end-November 2017, down from 2.46% at end-2016. The ratio decline reflects a good year for Vietnam banking system, and for the economy in general. Faster-than-expected economic growth, coupled with a modest recovery in real estate sector, made it easier for companies to service their debt. In addition, robust loan growth (c.18.2% in 2017), partly driven by a rapid increase in consumer lending, also helped to dilute the NPL ratio. We believe the NPL ratio will be improved in 2018 when Resolution 42 with new collateral repossession rule comes into implementation. The virtuous cycle of improved NPL leading to credit growth fueling economy, has longer to run. (Chart of the The Week) Weekly average O/N rate stayed flat at 2.12% while SBV continued withdrawing VND 6,667bn via T-Bill sell-outright auction. The weekly average O/N rate remained mostly unchanged at 2.12% after 6-month peak of 2.11% last week amid persistent excess liquidity in banking system. The central bank maintained net withdrawals of VND 6,667bn for third straight week by selling T-bill amount of VND 54,000bn. In a bid to government’s call for lower lending rate, the central bank cut 25bps to 4.75% for OMO rate. G-bond yield curve continued parallel shift downwards. The secondary market bond yields decreased marginally across the board for a second consecutive week, driven mainly by high buying interest of on-the-run State Treasury bond in primary market. The winning rate for 10-year State Treasury bond closed at 4.70% in the week with bid-to-cover ratio of 4.7x. Market Watch VNindex ended the week higher despite looming newly-proposed margin rule; and basic materials sectors led the gains. The VnIndex rose on Thursday and Friday to finish the week strong, with even fears of a proposed margin lending limitation to 40% dampening bullish investor sentiment. The Vnindex advanced 11.96 points, or 1.14%, to 1062.07 while HNXIndex added slightly 0.49 point, or 0.40%, to 122.39. The index clinched its third straight weekly advance. The advancing market saw the sector divergence when only three of nine primary VNindex sectors are finishing in positive territory. The basic material sector was particular outperformer, jumping 3.94% owa. The foreign investors remained net-buyers totaling USD 92.56mn (-17.4% owa) with HDB, VIC and MSN as top buying stocks. The USD 150mn ETF VFMVN30 rebalanced portfolio through buying VJC and PLX.

TVS Weekly NewsBrief - The Vietnam Streetwise - Wk.02.2018

15-01-2018 09:19:06

Market Watch VNindex booked second straight weekly gain ahead of earning seasons; financials and basic materials sectors led the gains. The epic VnIndex tacked on 37.46 points, or 3.7%, to 1,050.11 when the earning season kicks off (as per regulation, 20 January 2018 is the last day to release earnings report). It is 2nd weekly straight gains since the start of 2018. Eight of nine primary VNindex sectors are finishing in positive teritory. The financials and basic materials sectors led the gains, up 6.41% and 5.12% respectively. Hochiminh Development Bank JSC (HDB) hit ceiling on last Friday to jump 14.48% owa after it registered to PV Oil’s strategic partner scheme successfully. The foreign investors increased their large-cap stock accumulation with net-buying of USD 112.03mn (+112% owa) with HDB as top buying stock. They remain optimistic over 2018 economy prospect and company earning growth. Which stocks are in focus? Sai Gon Thuong Tin Real Estate JSC (SCR) gained 12.87% owa to close at 10,700 ahead of 4Q2017 good earnings. The 4Q2017 revenue and earnings guides are VND 1,500bn and 170bn respectively, discussed at EGM. We expect 2018 sees the positive turning point in performance, fueled by both strong cash flow from non-performing land liquidation and new industrial land bank transferred from Thanh Thanh Cong (TTC).

TVS Weekly NewsBrief - The Vietnam Streetwise - Wk.01.2018

08-01-2018 08:40:30

Market Watch VNindex ended stellar first week of 2018 on a down note, buoyed mostly by gains in consumer non-cyclicals, energy and financial stocks. The VnIndex kicked-off 2018 with a bang of 28.41 points to close first week at 1012.65 (+2.89% OWA) albeit it fell on Friday when the investors increased their profit-taking activities. Seven of nine primary VNindex sectors end the week in positive teritory The consumer non-cyclicals sector was a particular outperformer, jumping 5.32%, while energy and financial sectors were up 3.71% and 2.84% respectively. Masan Group (MSN +10.43% owa) and Vinacafe Bien Hoa (VCF +15.09% owa) were among the biggest boosts to consumer non-cyclical sectors to reflect the VCF’s dividend payment of US$ 2.91 per share and Masan Beverage’s intention to increase up to 100% stake of VCF.  The average daily turnover showed a sharp rise of 23.91% with USD 285.86mn, buoyed by “January effect”. The foreign investors increased their large-cap stock accumulation with net-buying of USD 52.74mn. Driven by spiking economy growth and SOE’s divestment speedup, the foreigners were net-buyer with USD 1.03bn since the start of 2017. Which stocks are in focus? Phuoc Hoa Rubber JSC (PHR) gained 7.43% owa to close at 47,000 when investor’s expectations are surrounding better FY2017 performance. Almost the gains came from unlocking land value (Unlock Land Value) when PHR made transformation of agricultural land to high-value ones, namely industrial land, we believe. Stock Ideas MWG – Potential upside to valuation but some uncertainty;(MWG - Strategic M&A to Secure Future Growth). MWG finalized two M&A deals, of which Tran Anh will add the new cash flow to group in 2018&2019. In addition, we expect both BHX and DMX segments make breakeven point during 2018-2019 period that ensure value creation. In the worst case scenario,however, MWG fails to create valuation from synergy between exsiting and new ventures.

FW: MWG [+20.1% - BUY] - Strategic M&A to Secure Future Growth - Equity Update - 04 Jan 2018

04-01-2018 10:28:02

We reiterate the BUY rating for MWG with a revised 12M TP of VND 162,500 (previously VND 131,000) – a 20.1% upside including 2018F DPS of VND 1,200. This upgrade is attributable to improved cash flows following strategic M&A made in 2017. Below are key investment highlights: § #1 M&A: Tran Anh Group (HNX ticker: TAG) – From competitor to subsidiary. MWG completed the negotiation to acquire c.95% stake of TAG – a leading electronics retailer with 16% market share in Northern Vietnam. The deal will be funded by the 5Y 6.55%-fixed corporate bond of US$ 50mn issued in Nov-17, and MWG will possibly pay a premium over market prices. Though TAG’s business performance is questionable (VND 5bn loss in 1H17), MWG expects to leverage TAG’s 34 megastores (1,500-2,000 m2 per store, mostly in Hanoi) to increase its footprint in the North. We anticipate the takeover would not be easy for MWG – a Southern Vietnam-based company – due to culture and store-size differences (typical DMX’s store-size is 400-600 m2), and may take it 12-18 months to optimize the operation at TAG. The “TAG” brand would remain in the first 1-2 years before being replaced by MWG’s own brand. We estimate TAG to generate c.VND 7,500bn in sales and c.VND 110bn in NPAT in 2018&19F (2017E: VND 3,500bn in sales & VND 16bn in loss). § #2 M&A: An Khang (AK) – MWG’s move into retail pharmacy. In Dec-17, MWG announced the acquisition of the pharmacy retailer AK (established in 2006, 14 stores in HCMC). This M&A shows MWG’s ambition to leverage its retail know-how in multi-sector to secure future growth, amid the flagship mobile retail chain TGDD has matured and the fast-growing electronics retail chain DMX would mature in 1-2 years. Though MWG aims to open 30-40 new AK stores in 2018, there is still no clear plan regarding how it will execute the expansion. Thus, we currently rule out AK’s impact on the group financials and will revisit this case in further update. § Bach Hoa Xanh (BHX) – Expecting profit from 2019F onwards. BHX reported VND 1.2trn in sales with 208 new stores in 11M17 (now total 248 stores, 2016: 40 stores). We estimate this grocery retail chain to end 2017 with 280 stores, all locating in suburb districts for pilot testing. BHX is still making loss, of which the primary reason, in our opinion, is due to BHX has yet reached its optimal economies of scale. Thus, despite of the current loss, we believe BHX will certainly accelerate store expansion in 2018-19F with the target of ~2,000 new stores in 2 years. Accordingly, we estimate BHX to start making profit from 2019F thanks to 1) larger scale (2,000 stores by end-2019F, TVS Research estimates), 2) more effective product mix (BHX has trimmed down its SKU from 2,200 to 1,500 in 4Q17), 3) plenty room for raising selling prices (now 10-20% under wet-market rates), and 4) more effective control over inventory loss ratio (from 3-4% currently to 1% in 2019F). Our revised 2017F estimates for BHX: revenue VND 1.8trn with 240 new stores; SSSG 20-25%; gross margin 15%. See Figure 1 for 2018-19F store expansion and sales forecasts. § Dien May Xanh (DMX) – On the right track. DMX reported 11M17 revenue of VND 26trn (+124% YoY), with 351 new stores (607 in total, 2016: 256 stores). The massive store addition is right on track with the management’s target for DMX in 2017 before shifting their expansion focus for BHX in 2018-19F. Our revised 2017F estimates for DMX: revenue VND 28.5trn (+108.5% YoY) with 400 new stores; SSSG 17% (2016: 15%); gross margin 16.5% (+120 bps YoY thanks to higher supplier discount). See Figure 1 for 2018-19F store expansion and sales forecasts. § The Gioi Di Dong (TGDD) – Sign of maturity. TGDD reported 11M17 revenue of VND 31.7trn (+14% YoY), with 117 new stores (1,068 in total, 2016: 951 stores). Comparing to 387 new stores in 2016, it’s obvious the expansion has slowed down, implying sign of maturity. Our revised 2017F estimates for TGDD: revenue VND 34.1trn (+11.4% YoY) with 125 new stores; SSSG 2% (2016: 10%); gross margin 17.5% (+100 bps YoY thanks to higher supplier discount). See Figure 1 for 2018-19F store expansion and sales forecasts.

TVS Weekly NewsBrief - The Vietnam Streetwise - Wk.52.2017

02-01-2018 09:40:08

Market Watch Vietnam stocks closed out 2017 in upbeat fashion after releasing positive economic data; energy, industrial and financial sectors leading the way. The VnIndex gained more 31.9 points (+3.35% over week ago) to end 2017 at 984.24 recording decade-long high. The gain mostly came after releasing positive economic data showing real GDP growth of 6.81% (upbeating government’s target and chief economist’s consensus). The Energy (+5.57% OWA), Industrial (+5.37% OWA) and Financial (3.81%) sectors are top performers when investor’s expectation is growing on recovery in oil price. In addition, the investor expected that financial sector turned to the light after 05-year NPL restructure. Trading activities on HSX exchange decreased by 11.59%owa with daily average USD 230.8mn when investors limited their activities before New Year’s Eve. The foreign investors increased their large-cap stock accumulation with net-buying of USD 73.97mn. Driven by spiking economy growth and SOE’s divestment speedup, the foreigners were net-buyer with USD 1.03bn since the start of 2017. Which stocks are in focus? Asia Commercial Bank (ACB), inked up 6.65% WTD, was pricing in good 2018 prospects. The investor’s expectation are growing that the 2018 earnings will jump up given ACB lifts NPL provision charge after 05-year restructure.